Modelling Impact of Transformer Asset Management Strategies on Costs Using Systems Typologies and Probabilistic Inferences

This paper models cost benefits of transformer asset management interventions based on systems theory and stochastic inferences. A triangulation methodology was used to collect non-censored time to failure data for power transformers. The data was processed using Least Squares Method to estimate statistical life parameters which were input into MATLAB simulation algorithms. There are two major contributions of the study. First, it applies systems methodology for quantitative modelling of risk - cost amplification and attenuation with their associated financial savings. Second, it shows quantitative benefits of refurbishment strntegy. These savings/benefits are vital for planning and decision making. They form a basis for a paradigm shift in power asset management. Most published systems approaches lack quantitative capability that is demonstrated in this study.
Key Words. Systems thinking; risk-cost modelling; maintenance; renewal; transformer asset management.