Why rising charcoal prices fail to drive clean cooking transitions: evidence from urban Malawi

The transition to clean cooking energy remains a major challenge in low-income countries, where reliance on biomass fuels persists despite increasing policy attention and rising fuel costs. In urban Malawi, this study analyzes the determinants of cooking fuel transition using 2024 household survey data from 1,613 households across four major cities (Lilongwe, Blantyre, Mzuzu, and Zomba). A multinomial logistic regression model was applied to estimate three outcomes: exclusive biomass use, energy stacking, and clean fuel adoption. Results show that despite substantial increases in charcoal prices, biomass remains dominant, used by 82.8% of households. Charcoal price is positively associated with movement away from exclusive biomass use, but the effect is stronger for energy stacking (β = 0.842) than for clean fuel adoption (β = 0.215), indicating partial rather than full transition. Economic factors, particularly affordability (β = 0.963) and household income (β = 0.785), are the strongest predictors of clean fuel adoption. Market access plays a crucial role in the adoption of clean fuels, as evidenced by the positive impact of LPG availability (β = 0.854) on usage. Conversely, greater distance to suppliers negatively affects adoption (β = −0.902). Additionally, behavioral factors such as cultural preferences (β = −1.124) and established energy stacking practices (β = −1.356) pose significant constraints to the transition. Furthermore, the interaction between charcoal price and income (β = 0.742) indicates varying responses among different income groups. These findings indicate that increasing charcoal prices primarily lead to energy stacking instead of a complete transition. This emphasizes the necessity for comprehensive policies that tackle issues of affordability, accessibility, and behavioral obstacles.