Dr. Wisdom Mgomezulu

Dr. Wisdom Mgomezulu

Author

Management Studies

25 publications

An enthusiastic, hardworking, determined and an exceptional individual with demonstrated competence, experience history and knowledge in Economics, International Trade, Business Management and Mathematical Sciences. A holder of a Ph.D. in Agricultural and Resource Economics; an MSc degree in Agricul...

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Business case analytics for avocado, chili and poultry value chains in Rwanda: Implications on Job Creation

Journal Article
Published 3 days ago, 29 views
Author
Dr. Wisdom Mgomezulu
Co-authors
Paul Thangata, Sibusiso Nhlengethwa, Davis Muthini, Jonathan Said
Abstract
Globally, agricultural value chains are undergoing rapid transformation driven by technological
advancement and the need for sustainable development. While developing agencies increasingly
recognize agriculture’s potential for job creation and economic growth, systematic approaches to
evaluate business cases that combine both financial viability and social benefits remain scarce.
We address this knowledge gap through employing an innovative analytical framework to assess
business cases, focusing on avocado, chili and poultry value chains. We integrate predictive analytics
with traditional financial assessment tools to evaluate the economic viability and job
creation potential of the value chains. An artificial neural network (ANN) with early stopping
combined with comprehensive financial metrics analysis assessed the social and financial
viability of the business cases. Primary data from businesses in Rwanda and secondary data from
national agricultural databases informed our predictive models, which were validated through a
5-fold cross-validation and evaluated for precision, accuracy and recall. The study finds that
expanding Chili cultivation from 533 to 4457 hectares catalyses a cascade of employment opportunities,
with >22,232 jobs predicted in production, 17,299 in storage and aggregation, and
17,024 in oil processing in a space of 5 years. The study further identified critical success factors
including access to finance, technical expertise, and market linkages that significantly influence
both financial performance and job creation outcomes. The study’s analytical framework offers a
replicable model for evaluating agricultural business cases that balance financial returns with
social impact, particularly relevant for developing economies seeking to optimize their agricultural
investment strategies.
Year of Publication
2025
Journal Name
Scientific African
Volume
28
Issue
1
Page Numbers
1-26
Supporting Files
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